10-Year and 30-Year Risks of Cardiovascular Disease in the US Population (JACC June 2025-1)-Article: 10-Year and 30-Year Risks of Cardiovascular Disease in the US Population

Article: 10-Year and 30-Year Risks of Cardiovascular Disease in the US Population

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This study assesses the 10-year and 30-year risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among U.S. adults using the newly developed American Heart Association PREVENT equations. The research encompassed data from 14,184 participants, ranging from 30 to 79 years old, from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted between 2011 and 2020. This cohort represents approximately 160.6 million American adults.<br /><br />Findings reveal that 3 in 10 U.S. adults either have existing CVD or face an elevated predicted risk of developing CVD within 10 years. Moreover, the study highlights that older adults are at particularly high risk; 90% of individuals aged 65 and above have existing CVD or a heightened 10-year risk. Additionally, two-thirds of middle-aged adults are identified to be without CVD yet possess an elevated 30-year risk.<br /><br />The study also uncovers significant disparities in risk based on sex and ethnicity. Men, and Black and Hispanic adults, generally exhibit higher risk profiles for both 10-year and 30-year CVD, ASCVD (atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease), and heart failure (HF). For instance, mean 10-year risk for men was noticeably higher than for women.<br /><br />These findings are crucial for public health initiatives, indicating the need for strengthened preventive measures against CVD. They also signal a call for tailored health care strategies that account for demographic risk disparities, particularly focusing on high-risk groups. The results underscore the importance of improving cardiometabolic health through lifestyle adjustments and potentially recalibrating clinical guidelines for CVD risk management using the PREVENT equations.<br /><br />Statistical analysis involved adjustments for various demographic factors and draw attention to the need for broader shifts in U.S. public health policy, especially concerning diet, lifestyle, and early prevention to mitigate CVD risks. The study emphasizes the importance of incorporating long-term risk assessments into public health strategies to effectively address cardiovascular health disparities and improve outcomes.

Keywords

cardiovascular disease

CVD risk

American Heart Association

PREVENT equations

National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

public health

ethnic disparities

preventive measures

cardiometabolic health

U.S. adults